Possible scenario
Tight Result Contested
18% Chance
The runoff is close enough that the losing side challenges vote counting, disinformation rulings, or campaign conduct before the Superior Electoral Court. The most important near-term effect is political uncertainty rather than a clear policy repricing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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