After reclaiming the lead by 41,053 votes near the halfway mark, Lula stretched his advantage to about 766,000 valid votes at 59.77% of polling stations reporting and 820,033 votes, or 50.55% to 49.45%, at 60.85% counted. Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer called the result an "extraordinary turnaround over the last week" despite strong anti-incumbency sentiment as Lula seeks a fourth term.
In overnight trading during the count, a 24/7 Hyperliquid perpetual contract tracking the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) fell 12.6% from a high of $46.30 to $40.46, putting it 5% below EWZ's Friday close of $42.59 after erasing a weekend rally that had priced in a Bolsonaro victory. The swing followed an earlier court order extending voting hours at open polling stations after a request from Lula's campaign.