Possible scenario
Contested But Contained
24% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro's camp challenges the count, citing precinct-level irregularities or audit demands, but the dispute does not overturn Lula's apparent win. Brazil's institutions remain functional, yet investor attention shifts to street mobilization, security forces, and the posture of the electoral court.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.