• 

  40%0.0%

  Democrats Reunify Late

  The backlash to Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Mike Rogers becomes a unifying event for Michigan Democrats. Abdul El-Sayed converts the $1.2 million surge into field spending, donor momentum, and endorsements from national Democrats who decide the seat is too important to leave divided.

• 

  30%0.0%

  Rogers Exploits Split

  Rogers successfully frames Stevens’ endorsement as bipartisan validation and uses it to peel off moderate Democrats and independents. El-Sayed’s fundraising spike helps him stay competitive, but the intraparty fracture remains visible through Election Day.

• 

  18%0.0%

  Race Stays Unresolved

  The late fundraising surge and Stevens controversy produce a highly polarized finish with neither side clearly ahead on election night. Mail ballots, provisional ballots, and county-level challenges keep the race unsettled for several days.

• 

  12%0.0%

  Stevens Fallout Deepens

  The controversy shifts from the Senate race itself to the future of Haley Stevens inside Democratic politics. Michigan party leaders, progressive groups, and national figures escalate disciplinary action after her endorsement of Rogers.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.