Escalatory Strike Cycle

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.9%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The confirmed destruction of an Iskander launcher leads Russia to widen its retaliation and increase nuclear or NATO-border messaging. This would be viewed as a material but still sub-crisis escalation unless NATO territory is struck or casualties broaden sharply.

What it moves

Energy+1.7%
Industrials+1.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?