• 

  45%+0.2%

  Orderly dual transition

  Brazil’s electoral court and Serbia’s institutions move quickly to certify the results, limiting the space for defeated pro-Trump leaders to contest the vote. Lula and the Serbian Student List emphasize constitutional continuity, reducing immediate market stress despite policy uncertainty.

  Industrials +0.4% · Non-Energy Materials +0.3% · Finance +0.2%

• 

  25%−1.3%

  Brazil result challenged

  Flávio Bolsonaro and allied governors challenge the runoff count despite Lula’s apparent victory. Serbia’s transition stays comparatively calm, but Brazil’s size makes the legal and street response the main near-term market driver.

  Finance −1.0% · Non-Energy Materials −1.0% · Consumer Non-Cyclicals −0.4%

• 

  15%+0.1%

  Serbia coalition test

  Serbia becomes the more uncertain leg after the election as the Student List turns protest momentum into parliamentary arithmetic. Brazil’s result is accepted, but Belgrade’s coalition talks determine whether the anti-Vučić win becomes a stable government or a prolonged institutional standoff.

  Industrials +0.2% · Finance +0.1%

• 

  15%−0.3%

  External backlash grows

  The electoral defeats become a broader political story because both ousted camps had tied themselves to Trump-style nationalist politics. The most likely version remains rhetorical, but a harder U.S. response would introduce trade and diplomatic risk around Brazil in particular.

  Non-Energy Materials −0.5% · Industrials −0.4% · Technology +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.