Possible scenario

Brazil result challenged

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Flávio Bolsonaro and allied governors challenge the runoff count despite Lula’s apparent victory. Serbia’s transition stays comparatively calm, but Brazil’s size makes the legal and street response the main near-term market driver.

What it moves

Finance−1.0%
Non-Energy Materials−1.0%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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