Possible scenario

Orderly dual transition

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brazil’s electoral court and Serbia’s institutions move quickly to certify the results, limiting the space for defeated pro-Trump leaders to contest the vote. Lula and the Serbian Student List emphasize constitutional continuity, reducing immediate market stress despite policy uncertainty.

What it moves

Industrials+0.4%
Non-Energy Materials+0.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?