Border Spillover Risk

its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The next wave of Russian strikes lands close to NATO borders or creates air-defense incidents over western Ukraine. NATO avoids direct involvement, but Poland and Romania raise air policing activity and investors price a modest increase in escalation risk.

What it moves

Industrials+1.0%
Energy+0.8%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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