Democrat Scott Colom widened his lead over Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith to 3,182 votes in Mississippi’s US Senate race, pulling ahead 460,005 to 456,823 (49.1% to 48.8%) with an estimated 98% of the vote counted by Decision Desk HQ. On prediction markets, Colom’s implied win probability climbed as high as 79% on Kalshi and reached 73% on Polymarket, while the New York Times Needle showed “no clear leader” with an estimated margin of Hyde-Smith +0.2.
The latest DDHQ count expands on an earlier Associated Press tally that showed Colom moving ahead by 28 votes—462,779 to 462,751—with more than 95% reported, while independent candidate Ty Pinkins held roughly 2.1% in earlier counts. Analysts noted that plurality-Black counties including Holmes, Marshall, Jefferson, Greene and Kemper beat turnout estimates, and that Hinds County still had the largest pool of uncounted ballots, where Colom was winning nearly 80% of the vote. Because Mississippi lacks centralized online reporting and counts provisional ballots last—a category that shifted the state’s tally toward Democrats by more than half a point after election night in 2024—analysts said the race would not be called tonight.