Possible scenario
Colom Certified Quickly
55%
0.0%
Scott Colom’s 3,182-vote lead with 98% counted is large enough that late-arriving ballots do not erase it. County canvasses and remaining precinct reports narrow or slightly expand the margin, and Cindy Hyde-Smith has limited mathematical room to recover.
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Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.