• 

  45%

  −0.2%

  Democratic Wave Expands

  The DCCC’s move proves to be an early sign that the midterm map is expanding beyond traditional battlegrounds. With Cook Political Report and VoteHub already pointing toward Democratic gains, Republicans are forced to defend seats they expected to win comfortably.

  Energy −0.6% · Finance −0.4% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  30%

  0.0%

  Narrow Democratic Majority

  The DCCC’s expanded target list proves directionally right but overly ambitious. Democrats capture the House on the strength of conventional battlegrounds, while most solidly Republican districts remain out of reach.

  Energy −0.1% · Finance −0.1% · Technology +0.1%

• 

  15%

  +0.2%

  Republicans Defy Forecasts

  Republicans outperform the late generic-ballot and seat-model signals, turning the DCCC expansion into evidence of Democratic overreach. Strong rural turnout, ticket-splitting, and GOP advantages in district lines keep the House narrowly Republican.

  Energy +0.5% · Finance +0.4% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  10%

  −0.4%

  Disputed Seat Battle

  The expanded map produces a chaotic finish rather than a decisive wave. Several districts are close enough for recounts, absentee-ballot litigation, or certification delays, leaving control unresolved for days or weeks.

  Consumer Cyclicals −0.4% · Finance −0.4% · Technology −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.