Disputed Seat Battle

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The expanded map produces a chaotic finish rather than a decisive wave. Several districts are close enough for recounts, absentee-ballot litigation, or certification delays, leaving control unresolved for days or weeks.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals−0.4%
Finance−0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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