• 

  40%

  −0.1%

  Oversight Without Impeachment

  Democratic leaders use their new House and Senate majorities to launch investigations into Trump’s finances, executive actions, and Epstein-related records, but avoid immediately committing to impeachment. This is the most likely path because it lets Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer satisfy their base while preserving flexibility with swing-district members.

  Finance −0.1% · Technology −0.1%

• 

  33%

  −0.4%

  Impeachment Inquiry Opens

  Democrats move beyond ordinary oversight and authorize a formal impeachment inquiry, most likely focused on alleged obstruction, misuse of office, and document withholding. Conviction remains unlikely, but a formal inquiry would raise political uncertainty and intensify subpoena fights.

  Finance −0.4% · Technology −0.2% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  17%

  −0.5%

  Full Impeachment Push

  Investigations quickly produce damaging testimony or documents, pushing Democrats toward articles of impeachment. The House could impeach Trump for a third time, but a Senate conviction would still require a large Republican break.

  Industrials −0.7% · Finance −0.7% · Technology −0.6%

• 

  10%

  −0.1%

  Backlash And Bargain

  Trump successfully frames impeachment talk as partisan retaliation, while Democratic leaders confront competing priorities such as funding bills, debt-limit timing, and confirmation battles. This path reduces immediate impeachment odds but could replace legal drama with fiscal confrontation.

  Technology +0.2% · Business Services −0.2% · Industrials −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.