Under standard weighting, Democratic incumbent Mike Zimmer leads Republican Joe Stutting 46% to 43% in the district, which Donald Trump won by 21 percentage points in 2024. When results are adjusted using a 2024 recall weighting to account for the sampling gaps, Stutting takes a lead of 47% to 45%. In the same district, Democratic candidate Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn 47% to 42% in the gubernatorial race, complicating Republican efforts to reclaim the eastern Iowa seat.
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
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State Navigate Warns Republican Voter Lies Skew Iowa District Polls
US Politics15 days ago
The refusal of rural constituents to participate in surveys is creating a sampling crisis in Iowa, according to the polling firm State Navigate. Chaz Nuttycombe of the firm released dual versions of a survey for the state's 35th State Senate district because rural Republicans are ignoring the study and those dissatisfied with Donald Trump are lying about their past voting records. Nuttycombe described the lack of response from rural conservatives as a "Canary in the Cornfields" for overall Iowa polling this year.
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