Possible scenario
Polling Error Contained
40% Chance
State Navigate and rival pollsters adjust likely-voter screens and weighting after finding that some Republican respondents gave strategically false answers. The Zimmer-Stutting race remains competitive, but the episode is treated as a local polling-quality problem rather than evidence of a statewide realignment.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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