• 

  38%0.0%

  Democrats Contain Rift

  Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign and Michigan Democratic intermediaries move quickly to keep Haley Stevens’s anger from becoming a broader anti-Democratic revolt. Stevens does not withdraw her endorsement of Mike Rogers, but the episode is reframed as a personal slight rather than a wholesale ideological break.

• 

  28%0.0%

  Rogers Exploits Endorsement

  Mike Rogers’s campaign uses Stevens’s NYT account to validate a message that Democrats are disorganized and disrespectful to moderates. The endorsement becomes part of Rogers’s closing argument to suburban Democrats, independents, and churchgoing voters in metro Detroit.

• 

  22%0.0%

  Democratic Rift Deepens

  The NYT interview prompts Stevens allies to leak more details about tensions with El-Sayed’s team. Rather than fading, the story becomes a proxy fight over party unity, progressive campaign management, and whether Democrats can hold swing voters in Michigan.

• 

  12%0.0%

  Story Quickly Fades

  The controversy receives intense attention for a day but is overtaken by polling, turnout operations, and national campaign issues. Voters treat the episode as insider drama rather than a reason to change their Senate preference.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.