• 

  35%−0.2%

  Netanyahu Narrowly Survives

  Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism and Jewish Power assemble the smallest possible governing majority despite the Arab parties’ record showing. Netanyahu argues that the right still has a mandate, but the coalition begins with acute instability and pressure from hard-right partners on Gaza, the West Bank and judicial policy.

  Finance −0.3% · Industrials +0.3% · Technology −0.2%

• 

  30%+0.3%

  Opposition Forms Government

  High Arab turnout prevents Netanyahu from assembling a majority and gives the anti-Netanyahu camp a path to government. A Lapid-Gantz arrangement would likely need outside support or abstentions from Arab parties, making it politically fragile but somewhat more reassuring to investors worried about judicial and diplomatic confrontation.

  Finance +0.5% · Technology +0.4% · Industrials −0.1%

• 

  25%−0.2%

  Deadlock Persists

  Neither Netanyahu nor the opposition can translate the Arab parties’ gains into a durable majority. President Isaac Herzog cycles through mandates while a caretaker government remains in place, raising the likelihood of another election and limiting major policy decisions.

  Finance −0.3% · Technology −0.2% · Business Services −0.1%

• 

  10%−0.2%

  Legitimacy Fight Escalates

  The losing camp challenges the role of Arab-party turnout, disputed ballots or the court’s earlier reinstatement of Arab lists. This remains a lower-probability path, but it carries the highest short-term market risk because it could revive Israel’s institutional conflict and mass protest dynamics.

  Finance −0.3% · Technology −0.2% · Industrials +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.