Possible scenario
Street Pressure Rises
−0.2%
Public anger grows among veterans, nationalist groups, and civil-society activists who see the prosecution as either political scapegoating or a cover for abuse. The most disruptive risk is renewed protest near courts, Interior Ministry offices, or National Guard sites.
What it moves
- Industrials+0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.