• 

  82%est.−4.1%

  Broad U.S. inflation persistence beyond the September gasoline shock

  Persistent inflation drives a valuation and financing shock: the broad equity market falls 4%, erasing $3.84T over 20 days. Technology loses 4.5% and $1.66T, while Healthcare declines a comparatively resilient 2.8%. Higher rates, wider credit spreads, and a stronger dollar create the split between long-duration growth exposures and defensive businesses.

  Technology −4.5% · Non-Energy Materials −4.3% · Finance −4.2%

• 

  22%est.+2.6%

  Energy-led inflation surprise with renewed core disinflation and no assumed Fed cut

  Softer core inflation outweighs firmer energy costs: lower yields and tighter credit spreads lift broad US equities 2.5%, adding $2.40T over 20 days. Technology and financing-sensitive businesses lead, while fuel retailers and other energy-cost-exposed businesses can lose because input costs rise faster than pricing.

  Technology +3.1% · Industrials +2.4% · Non-Energy Materials +2.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.