Since January 2025, average hourly earnings grew 5.5% while inflation rose 5.4%, meaning real wage growth has declined for six straight months. In response to the data, futures traders increased the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October to 45% from 22%, and the 2 year Treasury yield rose 0.16 percentage points to 4.95%. Other pressures include computing hardware, which saw an annual price increase of about 10% after adjustments for quality.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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US Inflation Hits 3.7% in September and Erases Real Wage Gains
US Markets6 days ago
A sharp increase in fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict drove US consumer prices above market forecasts in the latest data release on Wednesday. The consumer price index climbed to 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August, with gasoline accounting for more than half of the 0.6% monthly rise. Gasoline prices surged 34.2% year over year, while fuel oil prices jumped 74.2% and airline fares increased 22.4% over the same period. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose to 2.6% from 2.4%.
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