Federal Reserve official Mary Daly said the central bank will have to tighten monetary policy further because prices have been rising too quickly for too long and she needs greater confidence in the inflation outlook. Speaking on CNBC after Friday’s October employment report, Daly called the hiring figures “good news” for American workers, while noting that wage growth is not booming and real wages are falling.
Daly’s remarks followed Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing the US added 165,000 nonfarm payrolls in October, topping every forecast in Bloomberg’s survey, where the median estimate was 70,000 and the highest was 131,000. August and September payrolls were also revised up by a combined 84,000, lifting the three month average gain to 137,000, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% as labor force participation rose to 61.9%. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4% on the month and 3.1% from a year earlier, beating estimates of 0.3% and 2.9% even as annual pay gains remained below inflation.
Prediction market odds for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in December climbed to between 78% and 80% after the release, up from roughly 67% beforehand, and the 10 year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.894%. Beneath the headline payroll beat, the broader U6 underemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.6% as the number of people working part time for economic reasons jumped by 339,000 to 4.8 million, driven by 356,000 more workers whose hours were cut due to slower business.
