• 

  

  38%

  −2.2%

  Selloff Extends

  Investors continue cutting exposure to richly valued AI and megacap technology stocks after the Democratic sweep and Senator Ron Wyden’s renewed push for billionaire-tax and corporate-subpoena measures. The market reaction remains a material macro shift rather than a crisis, with policy risk and valuation concerns driving another risk-off session.

  Technology −3.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −2.3% · Finance −2.2%

• 

  

  31%

  +1.3%

  Relief Rebound

  Dip buyers step in after the $3.7 trillion drawdown, helped by calmer comments from Democratic leaders and expectations that Senate rules will slow sweeping tax changes. The rebound is plausible because the initial post-election move was abrupt and positioning in AI winners had become one-sided.

  Technology +1.5% · Telecommunications +1.1% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%

• 

  

  21%

  −0.7%

  Fed Repricing Dominates

  The strong labor-market data overtakes the election narrative, with traders pricing a higher probability of a December Federal Reserve hike despite weaker equities. This scenario hurts long-duration growth shares while supporting the dollar and front-end rates.

  Consumer Cyclicals −1.2% · Technology −1.0% · Finance −0.9%

• 

  

  10%

  −0.9%

  Policy Risk Intensifies

  Democratic committee chairs move quickly to convert campaign themes into a legislative and oversight agenda, reinforcing fears of subpoenas, tax increases and scrutiny of megacap executives. The probability is lower because major legislation still faces procedural and lobbying hurdles, but near-term headlines can still move markets.

  Technology −1.6% · Telecommunications −1.2% · Business Services −0.8%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.