Fed Repricing Dominates

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The strong labor-market data overtakes the election narrative, with traders pricing a higher probability of a December Federal Reserve hike despite weaker equities. This scenario hurts long-duration growth shares while supporting the dollar and front-end rates.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals−1.2%
Technology−1.0%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?