Possible scenario

Sustained Anthropic Momentum

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Anthropic’s Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5 launches translate into durable developer demand rather than a one-day spike. Lower pricing and faster inference keep Claude highly competitive for coding, agentic workflows, and enterprise prototyping.

What it moves

Technology+0.5%
Business Services+0.2%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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