• 

  36%+0.2%

  Likud Joins Eisenkot

  Shas’s refusal to join an Eisenkot-led government without Likud makes a broad unity arrangement the most plausible route to a majority. Likud would face pressure from Shas, UTJ, President Isaac Herzog, and parts of the security establishment to accept a formula that avoids another election.

• 

  24%0.0%

  Eisenkot Bypasses Shas

  Eisenkot may try to form a government without Shas if UTJ remains open to talks and centrist parties accept a compromise platform. This route is arithmetically difficult because it must bridge secular, Haredi, and possibly Arab-party support, but it remains viable if Likud refuses all unity formulas.

• 

  22%−0.2%

  Netanyahu Regains Initiative

  Shas’s position may harden Haredi alignment with Likud and give Netanyahu leverage despite falling short of a majority. If Eisenkot cannot assemble an alternative, Netanyahu could try to attract defectors or force another round of presidential consultations.

• 

  18%−0.3%

  Fresh Election Called

  If neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu can build a majority, Israel could return to elections soon after the mandate process expires. This is less likely than a unity compromise but remains a realistic outcome because Shas’s position reduces Eisenkot’s non-Likud options.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.