• 

  38%0.0%

  Extradition Track Advances

  Brazilian authorities use the confirmed Argentina-to-Ecuador route to issue or update international legal requests through Interpol and diplomatic channels. Ecuador, facing a clear record of a defied court order, cooperates enough to keep Flávio Bolsonaro from moving onward while courts review Brazil’s request.

• 

  27%−0.1%

  Asylum Standoff Emerges

  Flávio Bolsonaro argues that Brazil’s travel ban and passport cancellation are politically motivated, turning the case into a regional asylum dispute. Ecuador’s government must balance legal obligations to Brazil with domestic political considerations and precedent on political refuge.

• 

  20%−0.1%

  Brazil Escalates Probe

  Brazilian investigators focus less on Ecuador’s next move and more on who helped Flávio Bolsonaro cross the Argentine border and board the Ecuador flight. The case widens to include aides, security personnel, travel facilitators, and possible obstruction charges.

• 

  15%−0.1%

  Onward Escape Attempt

  Flávio Bolsonaro attempts to move beyond Ecuador before Brazil’s legal request fully lands, raising the risk of a broader search across friendly or transit jurisdictions. This would make the case more embarrassing for Argentina and Ecuador and intensify Brazil’s claims of deliberate evasion.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.