Possible scenario

Onward Escape Attempt

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Flávio Bolsonaro attempts to move beyond Ecuador before Brazil’s legal request fully lands, raising the risk of a broader search across friendly or transit jurisdictions. This would make the case more embarrassing for Argentina and Ecuador and intensify Brazil’s claims of deliberate evasion.

What it moves

Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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