Possible scenario

Brazil Escalates Probe

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brazilian investigators focus less on Ecuador’s next move and more on who helped Flávio Bolsonaro cross the Argentine border and board the Ecuador flight. The case widens to include aides, security personnel, travel facilitators, and possible obstruction charges.

What it moves

Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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