Possible scenario

Asylum Standoff Emerges

27%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Flávio Bolsonaro argues that Brazil’s travel ban and passport cancellation are politically motivated, turning the case into a regional asylum dispute. Ecuador’s government must balance legal obligations to Brazil with domestic political considerations and precedent on political refuge.

What it moves

Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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