Possible scenario

Extradition Track Advances

38%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brazilian authorities use the confirmed Argentina-to-Ecuador route to issue or update international legal requests through Interpol and diplomatic channels. Ecuador, facing a clear record of a defied court order, cooperates enough to keep Flávio Bolsonaro from moving onward while courts review Brazil’s request.

What it moves

Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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