Possible scenario
Shutdown Risk Rises
−0.2%
The new House majority collides with the Trump White House over appropriations, border funding, and agency restrictions. This is a higher-volatility branch, but still below crisis scale because it is an anticipated divided-government funding fight rather than an actual default or systemic event.
What it moves
- Business Services−0.4%
- Finance−0.3%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- 10-year Treasury yield
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.