The escalation follows a surge in aggression that saw Iran hit nine vessels last week, contributing to a volatile supply chain where crude flows fluctuated from 16 million barrels per day to 8 million barrels in a few days. While US officials, including Marco Rubio, assert the waterway remains open, the IRGC maintains absolute surveillance over the region. Market instability persists as refined product exports lag 30% compared to 2025 levels, and global markets have lost over 2.2 billion barrels of Persian Gulf exports since the war began.
