US Envoys Kushner and Witkoff to Meet Putin in Moscow, Zelenskyy in Dublin After Abu Dhabi Talks | Tilt

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Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?40%up 35 points
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?17%down 14 points
AI bubble burst in 2026?9%up 3 points
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Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy?20%

US Envoys Kushner and Witkoff to Meet Putin in Moscow, Zelenskyy in Dublin After Abu Dhabi Talks

US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff will fly to Moscow on Thursday to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and later travel to Dublin to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, following two days of trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi. Speaking after the sessions concluded Wednesday, Kushner said the envoys “see some openings and some opportunities” to discuss with Putin, calling the first direct three-way talks since February a “first good step” that made progress on Ukrainian security guarantees.

Kushner also said the prisoner exchange agreed to by Moscow and Kyiv in the United Arab Emirates will be the largest of the war, with exact numbers to be finalized Thursday. Russian state news agency TASS reported the swap could take place in two to three weeks, following Zelenskyy’s statement Tuesday that negotiators were discussing an exchange of 1,000 for 1,000 or 1,500 for 1,500 prisoners.

How it could play out

+0.1%Impact on the S&P 500 across 4 scenarios (−0.8% to +0.7%)

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

How it could play out

Portfolio

S&P 500

Story, how it could play out

4 ways this could read

Possible futures, not reported news · chances and moves from Tilt’s model

+0.7%
Framework Deal Advances
Kushner and Witkoff use the Abu Dhabi narrowing to secure Russian engagement on a ceasefire framework, while Zelenskyy signals conditional openness in Dublin. The most likely constructive path is still incomplete, with difficult issues around Donbas, sanctions, monitoring, and security guarantees left for follow-on talks.
Consumer Cyclicals +0.8% · Non-Energy Materials +0.8% · Finance +0.7%
−0.4%
Talks Stall
The meetings clarify positions but fail to bridge the core dispute over Donbas and the credibility of security guarantees. This outcome is plausible because Putin’s demand for all of Donbas remains incompatible with Zelenskyy’s public backing for freezing current front lines.
Technology −0.4% · Finance −0.3% · Industrials +0.3%
+0.5%
Interim Freeze Emerges
The sides do not settle sovereignty claims but move toward a practical halt in fighting along existing lines. This is a middle path because it lets Moscow avoid formal retreat and lets Kyiv avoid recognizing Russian annexations.
Non-Energy Materials +0.6% · Finance +0.6% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
−0.8%
Spoiler Escalation
A battlefield or sanctions shock derails the diplomatic momentum from Abu Dhabi. This is less likely than continued talks, but both sides retain incentives to improve leverage through military or economic pressure.
Energy +1.2% · Finance −0.8% · Technology −0.7%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.

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