• 

  45%

  +0.1%

  Negotiations Drag On

  Ukraine rejects the border-redrawing component but leaves room for continued U.S.-brokered talks on security guarantees, demilitarized zones, and aid sequencing. This is the most likely path because Kyiv has already signaled openness to freezing the front line while refusing formal territorial concessions.

  Technology +0.2% · Industrials −0.1% · Finance +0.1%

• 

  25%

  −0.2%

  Aid Rift Deepens

  Washington responds to Kyiv’s rejection by tying some future military or budgetary support to renewed engagement with the U.S. peace plan. The rift is politically plausible given the earlier U.S. pressure campaign, but a full cutoff remains less likely because Congress, NATO allies, and the Pentagon still see Ukraine support as strategically important.

  Industrials +0.7% · Technology −0.2%

• 

  20%

  +0.4%

  Modified Ceasefire Advances

  Kyiv, Washington, and European capitals converge on a formula that freezes fighting near current lines without legally redrawing borders or recognizing Russia’s annexations. This outcome is plausible because it aligns with Zelenskyy’s stated openness to a front-line freeze while preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty position.

  Industrials −0.5% · Finance +0.4% · Technology +0.4%

• 

  10%

  −0.8%

  Russia Escalates Pressure

  Moscow treats Kyiv’s rejection as evidence that diplomacy is failing and intensifies military pressure to seize more of Donetsk and Luhansk. This is less likely than continued diplomacy but remains credible given Putin’s recent vow to take the entire Donbas.

  Industrials +1.7% · Technology −0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.