• 

  45%+0.3%

  Recognition Containment

  Washington keeps Flávio Bolsonaro inside the United States on legal or humanitarian grounds while making clear he has no official status. The most likely path is institutional containment: Brazil’s electoral authorities certify Lula, and the U.S. avoids converting asylum into recognition.

  Finance +0.3% · Non-Energy Materials +0.2%

• 

  25%−0.3%

  Asylum Standoff

  Flávio stays in the United States and continues to make political claims, but Washington stops short of endorsing him. Brazil treats the issue as a legal and diplomatic irritant rather than a rupture with the Trump administration.

  Finance −0.5% · Non-Energy Materials −0.2%

• 

  18%−1.1%

  Domestic Escalation

  Flávio’s claim loses official traction abroad but continues to energize hardline supporters inside Brazil. The key risk is not U.S. recognition but unrest around certification, inauguration planning, and security-force loyalty.

  Finance −1.4% · Non-Energy Materials −1.1% · Energy −0.3%

• 

  12%−1.3%

  Bilateral Rupture

  The U.S. rejection of Flávio’s formal claim does not fully settle the issue if Trump publicly elevates him as Brazil’s opposition figure. Brasília could retaliate diplomatically, especially if Flávio is given privileged access or protection.

  Finance −1.8% · Non-Energy Materials −1.5% · Energy −1.0%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.