Possible scenario
Domestic Escalation
18%
−1.1%
Flávio’s claim loses official traction abroad but continues to energize hardline supporters inside Brazil. The key risk is not U.S. recognition but unrest around certification, inauguration planning, and security-force loyalty.
What it moves
- Finance−1.4%
- Non-Energy Materials−1.1%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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