Possible scenario

Asylum Standoff

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Flávio stays in the United States and continues to make political claims, but Washington stops short of endorsing him. Brazil treats the issue as a legal and diplomatic irritant rather than a rupture with the Trump administration.

What it moves

Finance−0.5%
Non-Energy Materials−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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