Possible scenario

Recognition Containment

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington keeps Flávio Bolsonaro inside the United States on legal or humanitarian grounds while making clear he has no official status. The most likely path is institutional containment: Brazil’s electoral authorities certify Lula, and the U.S. avoids converting asylum into recognition.

What it moves

Finance+0.3%
Non-Energy Materials+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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