• 

  45%0.0%

  Localized Fighting Resumes

  The most likely outcome is that the temporary Oleshky ceasefire ends as Russia says the humanitarian mission is complete. Fighting resumes along the lower Dnipro without materially changing the wider Kherson front.

  Industrials +0.1%

• 

  25%0.0%

  Aid Corridor Extended

  Moscow may use the claimed success of the mission to authorize a limited follow-on corridor, especially if the UN, ICRC, or Turkey presses for remaining evacuations. This would reduce near-term humanitarian pressure without implying a wider ceasefire in southern Ukraine.

  Industrials −0.1% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%

• 

  20%−0.2%

  Humanitarian Dispute Escalates

  The end of the mission could produce a sharper diplomatic clash if Ukraine, local residents, or aid agencies challenge Russia’s claim that deliveries and evacuations were completed. This would raise political pressure on Western governments but still fall short of a major war escalation.

  Industrials +0.4% · Energy +0.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1%

• 

  10%+0.1%

  Localized Confidence Building

  A less likely but plausible outcome is that the Oleshky mission becomes a template for further narrow humanitarian arrangements. This would not signal a general Ukraine-Russia peace process, but it could reduce immediate headline risk around Kherson.

  Industrials −0.1% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.