Localized Fighting Resumes

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely outcome is that the temporary Oleshky ceasefire ends as Russia says the humanitarian mission is complete. Fighting resumes along the lower Dnipro without materially changing the wider Kherson front.

What it moves

Industrials+0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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