• 

  45%−0.2%

  Limited Fighting Resumes

  The most likely outcome is a return to pre-ceasefire patterns: artillery, drones, and counter-battery fire along the Dnipro without a major operational shift. Both Kyiv and Moscow have incentives to avoid appearing constrained by a humanitarian pause once the Oleshky evacuation is complete.

  Industrials +0.1% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%

• 

  30%+0.6%

  Ceasefire Renegotiated

  A short extension remains plausible because the backchannel has already produced a concrete evacuation result. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and intermediaries may see value in a narrowly framed humanitarian deal that does not concede military ground.

  Consumer Cyclicals +0.5% · Industrials +0.2% · Non-Energy Materials +0.2%

• 

  15%−0.6%

  Kherson Escalation

  A more dangerous path is a visible escalation around Kherson after the ceasefire expires, either through attacks near evacuation routes or intensified river operations. This would raise concern that the humanitarian pause was only a tactical interlude before renewed pressure.

  Energy +0.7% · Technology −0.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3%

• 

  10%+0.3%

  Backchannel Broadens

  The Oleshky evacuation could become proof of concept for a more durable humanitarian mechanism involving children, prisoners, and displaced civilians. This is less likely than localized fighting or a narrow extension, but the October backchannel history makes it credible.

  Consumer Services +0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.2% · Industrials +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.