Ceasefire Renegotiated

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A short extension remains plausible because the backchannel has already produced a concrete evacuation result. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and intermediaries may see value in a narrowly framed humanitarian deal that does not concede military ground.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals+0.5%
Industrials+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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