Limited Fighting Resumes

The most likely outcome is a return to pre-ceasefire patterns: artillery, drones, and counter-battery fire along the Dnipro without a major operational shift. Both Kyiv and Moscow have incentives to avoid appearing constrained by a humanitarian pause once the Oleshky evacuation is complete.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.