Possible scenario
Republican Base Reunites
28%
0.0%
Paxton uses the Bush endorsements to nationalize the race as a fight between Trump-aligned Republicans and the old GOP establishment. Republican voters who dislike Paxton still return home because control of the U.S. Senate becomes the dominant closing argument.
What it moves
- Energy+0.2%
- Finance+0.1%
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.