Demand Downturn Deepens

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is that Enphase’s miss is read as confirmation that U.S. residential solar remains structurally weak after NEM 3.0, high financing costs, and fading tax-credit visibility. Investors focus on lower installer demand, cautious distributor ordering, and limited evidence of a near-term rebound.

What it moves

Technology−0.5%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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