• 

  45%+0.1%

  Democrats Gain Senate

  James Talarico’s Texas victory proves decisive in giving Democrats narrow Senate control. The market reaction depends on whether investors see the new majority as centrist and constrained or as a platform for tougher oversight of energy, finance, and technology.

  Energy −0.5% · Utilities +0.5% · Technology +0.1%

• 

  37%+0.1%

  Republicans Hold Senate

  Talarico flips the Texas seat, but Republicans win enough other races to retain the chamber. In this outcome, the Texas result is politically historic but has limited immediate federal policy impact.

  Energy +0.5% · Finance +0.3% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  18%−0.1%

  Paxton Contests Result

  Ken Paxton refuses to concede immediately and challenges the vote count, focusing on large Democratic margins and high Hispanic turnout in urban counties. The severity of the market reaction depends on whether the process is routine or becomes a Senate-control dispute.

  Technology −0.3% · Finance −0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.