Paxton Contests Result

18%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Ken Paxton refuses to concede immediately and challenges the vote count, focusing on large Democratic margins and high Hispanic turnout in urban counties. The severity of the market reaction depends on whether the process is routine or becomes a Senate-control dispute.

What it moves

Technology−0.3%
Finance−0.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?