Extended Supply Standoff

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

China does not announce a dramatic new ban, but customs reviews, end-use checks, and license delays keep yttrium flows unreliable. This path fits Beijing’s recent pattern of calibrated mineral pressure without triggering an immediate full trade rupture.

What it moves

Non-Energy Materials+1.9%
Industrials−1.7%
Technology−1.4%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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