• 

  40%+0.3%

  Licensing Compromise

  Beijing keeps the yttrium control regime formally in place but uses licenses and end-use certifications to avoid a full rupture with Washington and Tokyo. This is the most likely path because China has repeatedly used export controls as leverage while still preserving revenue and avoiding rapid supply-chain substitution.

  Technology +0.6% · Industrials +0.3% · Non-Energy Materials −0.2%

• 

  30%−0.7%

  Extended Supply Standoff

  China does not announce a dramatic new ban, but customs reviews, end-use checks, and license delays keep yttrium flows unreliable. This path fits Beijing’s recent pattern of calibrated mineral pressure without triggering an immediate full trade rupture.

  Non-Energy Materials +1.9% · Industrials −1.7% · Technology −1.4%

• 

  20%−0.2%

  Allied Countermeasures

  Washington uses the ambassador’s remarks to build a coordinated response with Tokyo, Brussels, Canberra, and Seoul. The policy focus shifts from rhetoric to stockpiles, financing, and targeted trade actions against Chinese mineral leverage.

  Non-Energy Materials +2.6% · Industrials −0.5% · Technology −0.5%

• 

  10%−0.9%

  Sharp Escalation

  The dispute moves from coercive signaling to a broader strategic-minerals confrontation. This is less likely because both sides have incentives to avoid a supply-chain shock, but the link to Japanese remilitarisation and U.S. chip controls keeps escalation risk elevated.

  Non-Energy Materials +3.7% · Industrials −1.7% · Technology −1.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.